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RICE imports will likely rise this year due to production challenges, a Department of Agriculture (DA) official said on Wednesday.

DA spokesman Arnel de Mesa said inbound shipments of the staple could hit 4.8 million metric tons (MT), higher than an earlier projection of 4.0 million MT.

“Imports naturally respond when there are problems,” he said.

“Remember the 2024 severe El Niño? From 3.8 [million MT] in 2023, it rose to 4.8 million MT,” de Mesa said.

Rice imports hit a record 4.8 million that year after production dropped to 19.09 million MT due to weather-related disturbances.

Lower Philippine Statistics Authority estimates of first-quarter output, de Mesa said, had prompted the DA to revise the2026 target of 20.28 million MT. to 19.87 million MT.

This could fall further to between 18.6 million and 18.8 million MT due to increased fuel and fertilizer costs as well as a looming El Niño, he added.

“So the market will respond — our importers, traders. When they see that production is low, they will import,” de Mesa said.

The United States’ Department of Agriculture expects the Philippines to import 5.1 million MT of rice for the 2026/2027 marketing year (July of this year to June of next year).

Although this differs from the Philippines’ usual January-to-December time frame when issuing figures, de Mesa said the projection had basis and was possible.

Three shocks are likely during the wet cropping season, he said. One is fuel prices remain elevated, affecting land preparation and crop establishment. The second is high fertilizer prices and the third the possibility of an El Niño later this year.

Source : manilatimes