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KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI, US — A decline in prices in Thailand has driven a reduction in overall global rice prices, despite increases elsewhere. US production is sharply down, but a large carryout is weighing on that market.

The International Grains Council (IGC), in its July 16 Grain Market Report, said its price index had fallen by 1% since its previous report a month earlier, “mostly reflecting weakness in Thailand, where 5% broken white rice export prices fell by $31, to $450 fob (Bangkok). This was linked to pressure from the upcoming off-season harvest and subdued international demand.”

However, 5% broken values in Vietnam rose by $8, to $420 (Ho Chi Minh), while 5% broken prices in Pakistan firmed by $9, to $414 (Karachi), as tighter supplies underpinned at both origins, the IGC said.

“In India, parboiled quotations increased by $14, to $355 (Kakinada), boosted by recent sales to West Africa and mounting worries about deficient monsoon rains,” the IGC said.

In its Rice Price Index, released on July 3, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said prices in June were 3.2% higher than in May, meaning that they were 2.6% above their May 2025 level and at their highest since January 2025. Indica quotations led the June advance, the FAO noted, putting them at a level 4.6% above May.

“The glutinous index was also up by 1% percent in June, although firmness in this segment was largely confined to Thailand and curbed by generally subdued buying interest,” the FAO said. “By contrast, the japonica index moved little, while the aromatic index fell by 0.7%, reflecting a downturn in demand for fragrant varieties.

“Export prices of Indica rice strengthened in all the major Asian origins in June. The most pronounced gains occurred in Pakistan and Thailand, where whole grain quotations were buoyed by sales to the Philippines after Filipino private sector buyers shifted sourcing to origins other than Vietnam.”

In Thailand, strong sales to Malaysia and sustained concerns over 2026-27 production prospects exerted additional upward pressure on prices, the FAO said.

It noted that tight availabilities caused gains in Vietnam, “while sales to African destinations drove upswings in India. In both cases, however, price increases tended to be moderate since they were capped by slow trading activities in Vietnam and by ample availabilities in India.”

The FAO described movements in the Americas as “more mixed.”

“Quotations of US #2, 4% eased somewhat amid quiet trading and efforts to free up storage room,” the FAO said. “On the other hand, robust sales underpinned prices in Brazil and Uruguay, countering the effects of currency depreciations against the United States dollar.”

The US Rice Producers Association (USRPA) on July 17 highlighted “great news” that “ADM has sold another 88,000 tonnes of rice to Iraq.”

“This business is critical to the smooth functioning of the industry in its current state, liquidating an oversized carryout amid a short crop,” it said. “That disappearance is a genuine bright spot in an otherwise dismal demand environment, and it is exactly the kind of bulk clearance the market needs to work down old-crop supply.

“The acreage collapse is worth dwelling on because it is historic. Total US long grain plantings of about 1.4 million acres now mark the lowest in more than half a century.”

The USRPA said the cash market was still “bouncing along the bottom even as the supply story turns friendly. Many dream of fresh buying from an X-factor like Iran or Cuba to change the calculus overnight, but for now, the Iraq business is doing the heavy lifting.”

Source : world-grain