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Global rice prices remain elevated as CBOT rough rice futures consolidate near recent highs, supported by tight Asian supplies, rising freight costs, and El Niño-related weather risks. Indian and Vietnamese FOB prices stay firm, with Indian parboiled and specialty rice segments leading gains amid strong demand and government export policies. The global rice trade is constrained by the inter-harvest period in key Asian origins, limiting exportable surpluses despite some importers scaling back tenders. Seasonal forecasts indicate below-normal rainfall in Southeast Asia, potentially impacting next cycle production and sustaining risk premiums in prices through early 2027. While the CBOT forward curve suggests some supply normalization by late 2027, current fundamentals reflect ongoing tightness driven by robust Asian benchmarks and logistical challenges.

Source : tridge