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RICE imports are expected to fall below 4 million metric tons (MT) in 2026 with domestic output projected to hit a record high, the Department of Agriculture (DA) said on Tuesday.

With a temporary halt on imports to be lifted beginning Jan. 1, the tariff on inbound shipments of the grain will also rise to 20 percent from the 15 percent ordered last year to combat rising prices, the department added.

“The tariff increase reflects several realities — the recent depreciation of the peso and the likelihood of higher global prices once the Philippines reenters the market,” Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. said in a statement.

Imports this year are expected to hit around 3.5 million MT, sharply lower than the 2024 record of 4.8 million MT, largely due to the four-month import halt that began in September.

The DA said it was looking to manage import volumes to keep rice affordable for consumers while ensuring fair prices for palay, or unmilled rice, for farmers.

Rice tariffs were slashed to 15 percent from 35 percent last year as the government sought to tame high domestic prices and food inflation.

Tiu Laurel said rice imports could fall between 3.6 million and 3.8 million MT in 2026, enough to meet national demand without compromising palay farmgate prices.

Local palay production, the DA said, is expected to hit a new record high of 20.3 million MT next year from the previous peak of 20.06 million MT in 2023.

The forecast compares to the 20.46 million MT initially targeted for 2024, which has been lowered to 19.61 million MT to 19.81 million MT after recent calamities that struck the country.

The DA said it met with rice importers on Monday regarding plans to calibrate import volumes, a move it said was met with support.

The Bureau of Plant Industry will start processing applications for sanitary and phytosanitary import clearances (SPSIC) even before the rice import suspension is lifted at the end of this year, the department added.

The 10-percent down payment required for SPSIC issuance will be waived to ease cash flow pressures on importers.

The approved permits will cover around 500,000 MT of rice imports. This includes 50,000 MT reserved for possible use by government agencies such as Food Terminal Inc. in case they need to intervene in the market.

The volume must arrive in the country by mid-February to prevent imported rice from negatively affecting palay prices at the start of the summer harvest season.

Imports during the January-February period will be limited to 17 ports: Manila, Batangas, Tacloban, Bacolod, Iligan, Cagayan de Oro, Davao, Zamboanga, Cebu, Iloilo, Capiz, Tagbilaran, Dumaguete, Subic, Calbayog, General Santos, and Tabaco.

Tiu Laurel also encouraged rice importers to diversify the sources of their rice imports. “Instead of relying almost entirely on Vietnam, we encourage importers to consider Cambodia, Myanmar, and other non-traditional suppliers,” he said.

He also said that the additional 1.2 million MT imported in 2024 and arrivals early this year had caused a decline in palay prices and negatively affected farmers’ incomes.

The DA noted that while the US Department of Agriculture had forecast that Philippine rice imports could reach 5.5 million MT for 2025-2026, this had become increasingly unlikely.

Source : msn