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KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI, US – Global rice prices fell in recent weeks amid harvest pressure, but there were some signs of a recovery, while the absence of US Department of Agriculture (USDA) information created uncertainty for traders.

In its Nov. 20 Grain Market Report, the International Grains Council (IGC) said that due to generally slow activity and seasonal pressure, the Council’s rice sub-Index declined by 1% over the previous month. However, after touching an eight-year low, international rice markets showed signs of recovery, it said.

“In Thailand, 5% broken white rice export quotations gained US$8 m/m, to $341 fob (Bangkok),” it reported, noting that “pressure from weaker export demand was later more than offset by support from rain-related delays to the 2025-26 main season harvest, with potential sales to China also underpinning.”

The London, England-based organization said that “white rice prices in India softened as kharif crop arrivals increased, contrasting with firmer parboiled values, up by $7, to $352 fob (Kakinada), amid tight spot supplies and enquiries from Bangladesh,” while “sentiment in Vietnam was dampened by an extension to the Philippines’ import ban, while values in Pakistan firmed on local demand.”

In the US, California medium-grain fob offers advanced by $58, to a 15-month peak of $869 (Oakland), tied to robust demand from buyers in Pacific Asia, the IGC said.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said in its Nov. 7 Rice Price Update that prices in October were 2.5% down from September and 21.7% below their October 2024 level.

“As measured by their respective indices, glutinous quotations registered the most pronounced monthly fall in October (5.9%), followed by Indica prices (3.0%) and Japonica and Aromatic quotations (0.5%, each),” it said. “In the case of Indica rice, October's decline represented the fifth consecutive monthly price drop, and it positioned the Indica Index at its lowest level since June 2019.”

Asian prices of Indica rice remained on a downtrend in October, as main-crop harvests were launched or gained momentum, in a context already marked by ample exportable supplies and fierce competition for markets, the Rome, Italy-based organization added.

“Sentiment was weakest in Pakistan, where efforts to revive sales slashed prices to nine-year lows,” the FAO said.

It added that for 5% broken rice, the fall positioned Pakistani quotations 5% to 9% below those of competing Asian origins.

The FAO reported that “the baht’s depreciation against the United States dollar also contributed to falls,” in Thailand, while “in India, a slowdown in buying interest kept prices under pressure, overshadowing setbacks to harvesting activities posed by untimely rains in some producing states.”

It said that in Vietnam, “the Philippines’ retreat from the market provided little room for quotations to regain ground, but cutbacks in Indica plantings and previously sealed deals with other Asian buyers prevented prices from falling further,” it said.

The FAO also pointed to a “market undertone” that remained weak in the Americas.

The US Rice Producers Association, in its Nov. 21 Rice Advocate publication, said that even though the US government shutdown had ended, “we will still have to rely heavily on the narrative led by speculation and the rumor mill.”

“Despite this, a confirmed sale to Iraq has ignited optimism in the US long grain sector, as thoughts only weeks ago were that we may have to wait until January to confirm this sale,” the association said. “The hope is that this leads to a demand for spot market rice, but with prices reported not to have exceeded $555 pmt FOB NOLA, cash prices aren’t likely to at numbers that will excite producers to sell.”

Source : world-grain