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The global rice market in 2027 will be shaped by a combination of weather risks, production and consumption trends, stock levels, government policies, international freight costs, currency movements and changing buyer behaviour, experts said during the first knowledge session, “Global Rice Demand and Supply Outlook 2027,” at the Bharat International Rice Conference (BIRC) 2026 in New Delhi. The session examined the key factors influencing global rice prices and trade flows, with particular attention to the potential impact of El Niño on Asian rice production, emerging import demand and the outlook for Indian rice exports. Addressing the session, IREF Vice President Dev Garg highlighted the role of international freight costs in determining the competitiveness and pricing of Indian rice in global markets. He noted that Indian 5 per cent broken rice prices could increase by around $60 per metric tonne, while cautioning that such increases may not be sustainable over the longer term. Responding to a question on the impact of war on rice prices, Garg said the extent of the impact would depend on freight costs and prevailing market conditions. He emphasised that price movements driven by such factors could face sustainability challenges over the longer term. El Niño Emerges as a Major Supply Risk Experts underscored the importance of monitoring El Niño through early 2027, as its development could influence production losses across successive rice-growing cycles in Asia. Indonesia and Vietnam were identified as countries facing significant exposure to weather-related production risks, while India and the Philippines could also be affected, particularly through their rabi and second-crop production. The evolution of El Niño will be a key variable for market participants assessing global rice availability, exportable surpluses and potential price volatility in 2027. South Asia and Africa Drive Demand Growth The session presentation indicated that South Asia and Africa would account for all demand growth in 2026–27, highlighting the growing importance of these regions in shaping international rice trade. Vietnam is emerging as the world's second-largest rice importer, while the Philippines continues to remain an important importing market. Experts also discussed the possibility that El Niño-related production pressures could increase Indonesia's import requirements. These developments could reshape trade flows and influence the sourcing strategies of importing countries, as well as the export opportunities available to major rice-producing nations, including India. Bullish Scenario Emerges in Audience Poll During an audience poll on the scenario most likely to shape the global rice market in 2027, the bullish scenario emerged as the preferred response. The discussion reflected the potential for weather-related supply disruptions, changes in import demand and fluctuations in freight costs to influence market sentiment and price expectations. However, the outlook remains dependent on how these factors evolve over the coming months. The balance between production, consumption, stocks and trade requirements will remain central to determining the direction of global rice prices. Outlook for India's Rice Export Sector The discussions at BIRC 2026 highlighted the need for India's rice export sector to closely track international freight rates, weather developments, evolving import demand and changes in the competitive position of major suppliers. With South Asia and Africa emerging as key centres of demand growth, and climate-related uncertainties posing risks to production across parts of Asia, exporters will need to remain responsive to shifting market conditions. The session reinforced the importance of data-driven market assessments and timely intelligence in helping exporters, importers, millers and other stakeholders prepare for the opportunities and risks that could define the global rice trade in 2027 and confidence in cross-border trade.

Source : msn