SSRice Special - Weekly

Last updated in May 2023, we take a fresh look at the USDA data, much of which were presented at the SS Rice Network 2023 event on 19 Oct, to provide a snapshot of how USDA data has changed since May, and more importantly, the key shifts we see, and how these compare to the current market realities, to perhaps gain some insights to key drivers of global rice market fundamentals. 

The Philippines has been a highlight this week, especially when we consider we saw the talk of a lower tariff rejected in a TV interview as we wrote this report.

Indonesia has been a highlight since Nov 2022, when the first signs of import demand interest showed, and since Nov 2022, 2.5 MMT of import allowances are suggested as 2 MMT of import allowances were added in early 2023

India remains in the spotlight, and after the 20 Jul 2023 ban on white non-basmati rice exports, the global markets recognize Indian parboiled rice as the best value in rice procurement, even after price increments that now see Indian parboiled rice prices close in on $500 PMT, but as global markets remain over $100 PMT higher to retain India’s attractiveness.

Indian rice exports maintain a strong pace, but weakness crept in to show Jan-Jun 2023 exports 4% down compared to Jan-Jun 2022, as both basmati and non-basmati rice exports weakened, but a closer look showed a steady and rising African demand and most of the weakness in Asia (weaker China, Bangladesh, Malaysia, and Vietnam, but better Nepal demand). 

In this week’s special report, we focus on Vietnam’s rice exports, and take a deep dive into Viet Jan-Jun 2023 export data which we have updated, to show the key buy-side highlights, as well as Vietnam’s performance in the export of different varieties and grades of rice. The Indian white rice export ban remains a massive influence which has added speculative interests which show Viet prices higher and as Viet WR 5% now shows offers of $600 PMT or higher, at price levels last seen in 2007 and 2008 peaks of the “rice crisis” year.

Pakistan has had a challenging year when we consider the 2022/23 export season as the combination of a flood hit supply, which shows especially in non-basmati rice exports we show below, combined with Pakistan’s delicate and sometimes volatile political situation to show a market characterized by a weak Pak rupee 

In this week’s special report, we show Indian rice exports maintain a strong pace

The week’s special highlights focuses on Thailand, most recently touted in press reports to be on the ascendency and expected to rise above Vietnam towards a 8 MMT potential in exports, and this situation looks enhanced by recent talk of limitations from India’s supply-tight exports, and higher prices.