SSRice Market Summary - Weekly
This week’s report comes as the SS Rice New team visits Thailand for a long overdue meeting with the rice export and trade community, and there is little new to report other than markets reeling from India’s white rice export ban, more price increases (and a late week dip in Thai and Viet prices, as volatility is seen especially across Asia and for all grades of rice) as stockists decide price moves
Politics, India’s white rice ban (which seems to have created disruptions across the supply chain in India and globally) and the weather remain at the heart of rice markets and while we have already talked about Bulog demand, Viet doing its own internal stock-check to consider the need for export controls keeping the line in terms of interests
Politics and the weather conspire to leave markets looking fragile – Vietnam considers restrictions and adds to markets lit by Russia’s withdrawal from Black Sea Grain deal, while India continues to show confusion and a variety of opinions on ban, as well as future moves, while positive from an improved monsoon, show in sowing data as 2023 sowing leaps above 2022 levels in India.
Breaking – India’s ban on white rice export confirmed on 20 July 2023. Last week’s news continues to leave a taste with last night (20 July) notice from the DGFT website of a “prohibition” status for non-basmati white rice (specifically HS code 10063090, effective immediately, while leaving the window open for the government of India to make exceptions.
Perhaps the market chatter fulcrum this week came from the Bloomberg story we carried in the link above.
Markets this week saw one key highlight in Bulog’s interest and 8 Jul tender for 300 TMT of rice, to be delivered by 15 Sep as sellers face the challenge of bidding for this demand. Other demand saw Iraq, Philippines and Malaysia are steady buyers and as broader weaker demand came mostly from Africa and Middle East markets that are stocked with cheaper rice procured over the start of the year.
The week’s highlights show a continued undercurrent of Indonesian demand lead the influence in a weakening global demand, as more buyers look towards the next set of crop arrivals, while the current active arrivals show mostly in Vietnam, where oversold exports seem to be providing ample support to the Viet market with short sellers in Vietnam feeling more heat from firm markets, especially in white rice exports.
The week’s highlights revealed a document from India that showed what could be construed as a lifting of some restrictions faced in broken rice sales, as special allowances were addressed, conditions for purchases, and a list of conditions which seem to open the door to a likely rise in Indian broken rice sales ahead, the devil will be in the details
The week’s highlights really refocuses on the weather element which has been a focus on the global press with lots of worries over El Nino, droughts, even excessive and untimely weather events, while the rice trade sees India, Pakistan and Myanmar slow, with monsoon focus ahead
The week’s highlights saw markets quieten, there was talk of an Indonesian interest returning to markets, but the emphasis was on the next crop, El Nino worries and the shape of production ahead while we saw the dollar rise from the lows of last week while we focus on “stealth buying” as a subject as we have seen Indonesia’s Bulog
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SS Rice News Convention 2024 provides an event focused on information and intelligence gathering blended with networking for two days of analysis, discussion, meeting opportunities in a mix of formal and informal settings to provide and ideal environment to gain from 2 or even 3 days of rice related activities in the idyllic environment in Danang, Vietnam. With presentation and panel session featuring our own analysis of markets, and key issues that markets will need to focus on as the 2023/24 trading year reveals itself, with the Thai, and Indian main crops, as well as key harvests we see in Pakistan, Myanmar and as rice production reaches a peak across Southeast Asia (including Indonesia, Philippines and Malaysia), to reveal the biggest harvests across global markets.
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