SSRice Market Summary - Weekly

Myanmar’s decision to ban rice exports (all types except parboiled), takes the headline and set markets abuzz as reactions are expected, and we don’t think our price list of above will hold much validity by the end of today (Friday). 

This week I was asked a loaded question, if I was bullish, and the answer is yes, but with more emphasis on details we see emerging, as we have the obvious Indian ban

This week’s report comes as the SS Rice New team visits Thailand for a long overdue meeting with the rice export and trade community, and there is little new to report other than markets reeling from India’s white rice export ban, more price increases (and a late week dip in Thai and Viet prices, as volatility is seen especially across Asia and for all grades of rice) as stockists decide price moves

Politics, India’s white rice ban (which seems to have created disruptions across the supply chain in India and globally) and the weather remain at the heart of rice markets and while we have already talked about Bulog demand, Viet doing its own internal stock-check to consider the need for export controls keeping the line in terms of interests

Politics and the weather conspire to leave markets looking fragile – Vietnam considers restrictions and adds to markets lit by Russia’s withdrawal from Black Sea Grain deal, while India continues to show confusion and a variety of opinions on ban, as well as future moves, while positive from an improved monsoon, show in sowing data as 2023 sowing leaps above 2022 levels in India.

Breaking – India’s ban on white rice export confirmed on 20 July 2023. Last week’s news continues to leave a taste with last night (20 July) notice from the DGFT website of a “prohibition” status for non-basmati white rice (specifically HS code 10063090, effective immediately, while leaving the window open for the government of India to make exceptions. 

Perhaps the market chatter fulcrum this week came from the Bloomberg story we carried in the link above.

Markets this week saw one key highlight in Bulog’s interest and 8 Jul tender for 300 TMT of rice, to be delivered by 15 Sep as sellers face the challenge of bidding for this demand. Other demand saw Iraq, Philippines and Malaysia are steady buyers and as broader weaker demand came mostly from Africa and Middle East markets that are stocked with cheaper rice procured over the start of the year.

The week’s highlights show a continued undercurrent of Indonesian demand lead the influence in a weakening global demand, as more buyers look towards the next set of crop arrivals, while the current active arrivals show mostly in Vietnam, where oversold exports seem to be providing ample support to the Viet market with short sellers in Vietnam feeling more heat from firm markets, especially in white rice exports.