SSRice Market Summary - Weekly

In two weeks, we saw Indonesia in action with a 300 TMT tender last week with 150 TMT of Thai, 95 TMT of Pakistan and 50 TMT of Viet offers, and this week, we heard of more, as we now have news of 80 TMT more in Thai, 80 TMT Viet and 10 TMT of Cambodian rice sales to Indonesia, and as all this happened, prices weakened, perhaps letting some liquidity needs take the pressure of heated prices we have seen since the 20 Jul 2023 Indian ban on non-basmati white rice.

Let’s start with the news from Philippines, where we saw markets rocked by news of a PHP 41-45 /Kg limit on rice prices, and this came with calls of cancelled contracts in Vietnam and some concern to how markets ahead will look?

India rocked markets again, and after our report last week as Friday night (25 Aug) was abuzz with news of a duty of 20% added to parboiled rice exports (until 16 Oct according to press though some seem less clear on this) and a Minimum Export Price of $1200 PMT which also received criticism from several groups, though the theme remains the same, that these decisions were to reign in food inflation and rising costs in India,

Myanmar’s decision to ban rice exports (all types except parboiled), takes the headline and set markets abuzz as reactions are expected, and we don’t think our price list of above will hold much validity by the end of today (Friday). 

This week I was asked a loaded question, if I was bullish, and the answer is yes, but with more emphasis on details we see emerging, as we have the obvious Indian ban

This week’s report comes as the SS Rice New team visits Thailand for a long overdue meeting with the rice export and trade community, and there is little new to report other than markets reeling from India’s white rice export ban, more price increases (and a late week dip in Thai and Viet prices, as volatility is seen especially across Asia and for all grades of rice) as stockists decide price moves

Politics, India’s white rice ban (which seems to have created disruptions across the supply chain in India and globally) and the weather remain at the heart of rice markets and while we have already talked about Bulog demand, Viet doing its own internal stock-check to consider the need for export controls keeping the line in terms of interests

Politics and the weather conspire to leave markets looking fragile – Vietnam considers restrictions and adds to markets lit by Russia’s withdrawal from Black Sea Grain deal, while India continues to show confusion and a variety of opinions on ban, as well as future moves, while positive from an improved monsoon, show in sowing data as 2023 sowing leaps above 2022 levels in India.

Breaking – India’s ban on white rice export confirmed on 20 July 2023. Last week’s news continues to leave a taste with last night (20 July) notice from the DGFT website of a “prohibition” status for non-basmati white rice (specifically HS code 10063090, effective immediately, while leaving the window open for the government of India to make exceptions.