The country’s palay output likely jumped by double digits in the third quarter due to the expansion of harvest area, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).
The PSA said palay harvest may have grown by 18.1 percent to 3.93 million metric tons (MMT) in July to September from 3.33 MMT last year. The third quarter is usually considered the lean season for rice.
However, the latest production estimate is 1.7 percent lower than the agency’s initial forecast of 4 MMT.
“Based on the standing crop for the period July to September 2025, the yield per hectare of palay may decrease to 4.17 metric tons or by 0.7 percent from the previous year’s same period yield per hectare of 4.20 metric tons.”
Despite this, PSA said total palay harvest area in the third quarter likely expanded by 19 percent to 943,070 hectares (ha) from the 792,220 ha recorded in the same period last year.
As of September 1, PSA said about 398,320 hectares, or 42.2 percent of the 943,070 hectares of updated area of standing crop, have been harvested. This translates to a palay output of 1.62 MMT.
“Of the total area of 1.90 million hectares of standing palay as of 01 September 2025, 37.8 percent were at the vegetative stage, 37.5 percent were at the reproductive stage, and 24.6 percent were at the maturing stage.”
Earlier, the Department of Agriculture (DA) scaled back its palay output forecast this year to 20.3 MMT due to torrential downpours. This is lower than its initial projection of 20.45 MMT.
The agency also noted that erratic weather patterns could further push down expected paddy rice output in 2025 to as low as 20.09 MMT. If realized, however, the projected range would still be higher than the record 20.06 MMT in 2023.
Despite such adjustment, the DA said it remains hopeful following the all-time high output in the first semester at 9.08 MMT, which was propelled by improved weather conditions and bolstered government support.
Historically, the second half of the year accounts for over 55 percent of total rice production.
Corn outlook
Meanwhile, the PSA projects corn output in the third quarter to contract by 3.6 percent to 2.41 MMT from the actual production of 2.5 MMT in the previous year.
The harvest area during the reference period was expected to decrease by 1.2 percent to 796,780 ha from the 806,160 ha recorded last year.
Furthermore, the state statistics agency noted that the yield per hectare of corn may also drop by 2.6 percent to 3.02 MT from 3.10 MT.
“As of 01 September 2025, about 431,010 hectares or 54.1 percent of the 796,780 hectares updated harvest area of standing corn have been harvested, translating to 1.18 million metric tons of corn output.”
“Of the total area of 712,690 hectares of standing corn as of 01 September 2025, 49.6 percent were at the maturing stage, 27.9 percent were at the vegetative stage, and 22.6 percent were at the reproductive stage.”
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