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MANILA, Philippines — Five million metric tons. Or five billion kilograms.

That is the total volume of rice that the Philippines may import this year, according to the latest projections of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The USDA, in its November report, hiked its full-year rice import forecast for the Philippines by six percent to five million MT from its 4.7-million MT estimate in the previous month.

The international agency attributed the increase to rising purchases of rice by the Philippines from Vietnam to meet its growing demand for the staple.

If the import forecast materializes, then it will be the first time in history that the Philippines will be importing such a volume of rice since the liberalization and deregulation of the country’s domestic rice industry in 2019.

Furthermore, the USDA revised upward its 2025 rice import forecast for the Philippines to 5.1 million MT from 4.9 million MT.

Based on the USDA’s projections, the Philippines could be the world’s largest buyer of rice for three straight years from 2023 to 2025.

The Philippines’ total rice demand requirement, which includes actual consumption and carry-over stocks,   may  hit 16.6 million MT this year, about three percent over last year’s 16.1 million MT, according to USDA.

Domestic rice harvest, meanwhile, is projected to drop by 300,000 MT year-on-year to 12.325 million MT from 12.625 million MT a year ago.

Last week, Leocadio Sebastian, a former agriculture undersecretary, said the country might import a total of 4.2 million MT of rice this year to meet its staple requirement and ensure stable prices in the market.

Sebastian said the country has to end the year with a good level of rice stocks to ensure that prices would not spike at the start of next year.

He said the country already lost about 900,000 MT of palay production due to extreme weather conditions, excluding the recent impact of severe tropical storm Kristine.

“The total production this year will be much lower than the 20 million MT produced last year,” he said.

“We will probably reach about 4.2 million MT by the end of the year. I think it could be more, depending again on the traders on how they will be reacting to the global market,” he added.

The country’s rice imports have hit nearly 3.8 million MT as of end-October, surpassing the 3.6-million MT imported volume for the entire 2023, based on government data.

The Department of Agriculture (DA) earlier estimated that the country would end the year with a carryover supply of 3.83 million MT, buoyed by imported stocks, enough to cover nationwide consumption for about 100 days.

The DA projected that domestic palay harvest would decline to 19.41 million MT from last year’s 20.06 million MT.

Source : msn