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MANILA, Philippines —  Despite a projected higher rice output, the Philippines will still have to import about 3.5 million metric tons (MT) of the staple this year to meet its total requirement, government estimates showed.

Local rice production is estimated to grow by three percent to 12.89 million MT this year from last year’s 12.48 million MT, based on National Economic and Development Authority data obtained by The STAR.

NEDA noted that the domestic output is still 17-percent short of meeting the country’s total rice demand estimated at 15.54 million MT.

The country is projected to import some 3.45 million MT of rice this year to plug the shortfall in domestic output and ensure sufficient carry-over stocks at the start of next year, according to NEDA.

The estimated figure is substantially lower than last year’s record import volume of 4.8 million MT.

NEDA figures showed that domestic rice production from the first quarter until the third quarter will not be enough to meet domestic demand, thus emphasizing the need for imports.

It is only in the fourth quarter, when output is projected at nearly 4.8 million MT, will it be sufficient to supply the 4.08 million MT estimated demand.

The agency projected that the country’s domestic rice output will reach 3.01 million MT in the first quarter, 2.7 million MT in the second quarter and 2.39 million MT in the third quarter.

Local rice production shortfall in relation to demand in the first quarter is estimated at 800,000 MT, 1.1 million MT in second quarter and 1.42 million MT in the third quarter, according to NEDA estimates.

Furthermore, the country’s rice imports per quarter are projected to hit 923,000 MT in the first quarter, 847,000 MT in the second quarter, 859,000 MT in the third quarter and 818,000 MT in the fourth quarter.

The country is expected to end the year with 4.52 million MT of rice stocks, enough to last for about 118 days or until April 2026 in time for the next dry season harvest, based on NEDA data.

The projected year-end rice inventory is more than a fifth higher than last year’s 3.73 million MT.

The country’s rice imports have been on a downward trend this year due to a confluence of events that include high carry-over stocks and the projected better domestic output.

The Department of Agriculture earlier disclosed that it targets to improve domestic palay harvest to hit a new record-high of 20.46 million MT, eclipsing the previous record of 20.06 million MT in 2023.

Likewise, the imposition of a maximum suggested retail price on imported premium rice will also contribute to lower rice imports as noted by industry players and international observers.

The country’s rice imports in the first quarter fell by 32 percent year-on-year to 804,347 MT from last year’s 1.19 million MT, latest Bureau of Plant Industry data showed.

At present, rice imports are averaging around 270,000 MT a month, nowhere near the 400,000 MT average monthly rice import arrivals last year, Agriculture assistant secretary Arnel de Mesa said.

De Mesa said the full-year rice import volume could settle between 3.6 million MT and four million MT if the downward trend continues.

Source : philstar