The Philippines faces a potential food security crisis in 2026 and may need to import a record 6.9 million metric tons of rice to prevent a national shortage, according to a Federation of Free Farmers (FFF) analysis.
Federation of Free Farmers national manager Raul Montemayor warned that local production is likely to decline due to a global oil crisis, surging fertilizer costs and the persistent impact of the El Niño weather phenomenon.
Montemayor criticized the Department of Agriculture for a lack of meaningful intervention strategies to mitigate these mounting pressures.
The FFF projections assume a 6-percent baseline drop in rice output in the first semester of 2026. Data indicate that across all projected scenarios, the combination of existing inventory and local harvests will fail to meet national demand, resulting in a negative inventory before imports are considered.
To maintain a critical 60-day buffer stock of 2.39 million metric tons, the Philippines should rely heavily on the global market. Even a modest 10-percent drop in second-semester production would require 4.6 million metric tons in imports, nearly matching the 2024 record of 4.8 million metric tons, the group said.
Import requirements will scale upward as local production falters. A 20-percent harvest decline in the second semester would necessitate 5.2 million metric tons of imports, while a 30-percent drop would push that figure to 5.8 million metric tons. If production collapses by 50 percent, the country would require a staggering 6.9 million metric tons.
National food consumption remains constant at 14.5 million metric tons. Any shortfall in local production translates directly into a higher import bill or a threat to food security.
“The forecasts are quite grim. We cannot expect any meaningful intervention from the DA to offset the effects of the oil crisis, fertilizer price increases, and the El Niño effect,” Montemayor said.
The Philippines imported a record 4.8 million metric tons of rice in 2024, the highest volume in the country’s history.
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