A potentially stronger El Niño later in the year has raised concerns about India’s rural economy, with experts warning that not just the kharif season but even winter crops could be hit. A weaker-than-normal monsoon could impact rain-fed crops, fuel food inflation and weigh on incomes, they said.
“A super El Nino is taking shape in the Pacific, and India’s rural economy is in the crosshairs. This is emerging as a key risk for India’s agriculture, with the India Meteorological Department projecting a below-normal monsoon at 92 percent of the long-period average,” said Shashi Kant Singh, Partner, Agriculture, Food and Agribusiness, PwC India.
“The implications extend beyond the kharif season, with risks of warmer winters potentially affecting rabi output as well.”
El Nino, a weather phenomenon linked to warming of ocean surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, has historically been associated with below-normal and erratic rainfall in parts of India, posing a risk to crops such as pulses, oilseeds, maize, and coarse cereals during the kharif sowing season.
Bigger pain ahead
Private weather forecaster Skymet has flagged deeper concerns, suggesting that July-September could see significant deficits, especially in the monsoon core zone that supports rain-fed pulses, oilseeds, and sugarcane.
Shailesh Tyagi, partner and leader, climate change & sustainability, Deloitte South Asia, said while the immediate concern is for rain-fed agriculture such as pulses, oilseeds, maize and coarse cereals due to the rain deficit and low distribution during the sowing season, it could affect the rural incomes, inflation and economic sentiment.
“Since India plays an important role in global agricultural markets, disruptions in domestic food production can also affect the international food prices,” Tyagi said.
June has been the fifth-driest in the past 125 years, with rainfall 42 percent below normal, said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser at State Bank of India. He warned that conditions could become difficult if the rainfall deficit widens to 80 percent of the long-period average.
“All droughts have happened in an El Nino year. During a super El Nino, the rainfall deficit goes up significantly,” Ghosh said.
Winter is coming?
While the government is working on district-wise contingency plans to mitigate risks of a weaker monsoon, experts say that execution remains critical.
Timely farmer advisories, access to climate-resilient seeds and efficient use of irrigation resources will determine on-ground outcomes, Singh said.
Strengthening crop insurance, ensuring credit flow and maintaining responsive procurement policies will also be essential to cushion farm incomes and stabilise rural demand, experts say.
Ghosh said deficient rainfall may impact construction sector, fast-moving consumer goods and sales of two-wheelers and tractors as well.
“The first sector that comes to my mind is construction, which will get impacted by low rainfall. I think commercial construction has already seen restrictions in Mumbai, where water supply to the sector has been curtailed. So, the first activity that could be impacted is construction,” Ghosh said.
The government has activated contingency plans across over 300 districts, with a push towards alternative cropping, particularly pulses, millets, and oilseeds, aiming to limit fallowing and sustain output.
The government should consider a relief package for small and marginal farmers and may also increase allocations for the rural jobs guarantee programme, Ghosh said.
The need of the hour is to take preemptive measures by using climate intelligence to decide what to sow, prepare district-wise contingency plans and make appropriate procurement or import decisions, Tyagi said.
© Copyright 2025 The SSResource Media.
All rights reserved.