For decades, China held the top spot in global rice production. But data is now showing a pivotal shift: India has overtaken China, producing an estimated 150 million metric tons of rice in the 2024–25 marketing year, about 27–28% of global output, according to the USDA . At the same time, China trails closely behind, producing around 145 million metric tons.
This shift comes on the heels of record-breaking harvests and a boom in acreage. The USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board highlights that India has expanded its harvested rice area to 50–51 million hectares, delivering yields that are among the highest seen, driven by favourable monsoon rains, government support via minimum support prices (MSP), and high-performing seed varieties.
In fact, India's 2024–25 rice production is projected by the USDA at 147 million metric tons, marking its highest-ever output and securing its position as the world’s top producer.
India’s rise contributes to a broader trend: global rice production is hitting records. The USDA forecasts 535–536 million metric tons of milled rice for the 2024–25 season, up several percentage points from the previous year.
This surge is not limited to India; other countries like Indonesia , Cambodia, Brazil, and Vietnam also contribute significantly, though none come close to India's or China’s combined dominance.
India’s bumper harvests have led to record stockpiles, nearly 44 million tonnes of rice in state granaries, far exceeding government targets. To prevent oversupply, New Delhi raised procurement prices, the smallest increase in years, aiming to moderate production incentives and balance exports with domestic supply needs.
China, meanwhile, appears to be easing in consumption; domestic rice use is projected to decline slightly even as production stays high.
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