Production projected to drop by 5 million tonnes, while consumption could rise by 3.8 million tonnes
Rice prices in the global market will likely rise due to the balance swinging to a deficit after over a decade and increasing concerns over weather and fertilizer availability due to geopolitical crisis, analysts have said.
“...we expect rice prices to maintain upward momentum over the coming quarters, with the 2026 annual average falling within a $11.7-12.5/cwt (45.36 kg) range, underpinned by rising concerns over weather risks and fertiliser affordability amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict,” said research agency BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA), in its report last week, said global rice production is estimated to decline by 5 million tonnes (mt) in 2026-27 (September-August) from 537.8 mt in 2025-26.
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