The Department of Agriculture (DA) said Tuesday it lowered its rice production forecast for 2025 following widespread flooding in major farming areas, although the country is still expected to surpass its all-time high palay harvest.
From an earlier projection of 20.46 million metric tons (MT), the DA now sees this year’s palay output at 20.09 to 20.39 million MT, or equivalent to 12.65 to 12.85 million MT of milled rice.
The revised target remains above last year’s 19.09 million MT, when both El Niño and La Niña hit production.
“The rainfall volume we’ve seen in recent months has been unprecedented,” Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. told lawmakers during the DA’s 2026 budget presentation before the House Committee on Appropriations.
He said the more conservative outlook reflects “prudence in the face of uncertainty,” adding that recent price volatility could also affect farmers’ planting decisions.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. earlier ordered a two-month suspension of rice imports starting Sept. 1 to stabilize palay prices.
Despite the revised forecast, palay production in the first half of 2025 rose 6.4 percent year-on-year to 9.08 million MT, on improved weather conditions and stronger government interventions. Historically, the second half of the year accounts for more than 55 percent of total output.
Rice supply by yearend is projected at 3.86 to 3.96 million MT, enough for 96 to 101 days of national consumption based on per capita usage of 122.7 kilograms annually, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority.
The DA said it is recalibrating its planting calendar to cope with erratic weather patterns, while pushing for its proposed P176.7-billion budget for 2026 to modernize agriculture and raise farm incomes.
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