According to the latest FranceAgriMer market note, rice prices in Asia surged by 20% in May, marking the largest monthly increase in nearly two decades. The price of Thai white rice rose more than 20% during the month, a level not seen since 2008.
Drivers of the Price Surge
The sharp rise is attributed to the impact of war on energy and fertilizer markets, as well as climatic risks threatening harvests. The lack of fuel and fertilizers, linked to geopolitical tensions and maritime trade difficulties, has driven up production costs. Since the conflict began in February, nitrogen fertilizer prices have increased by 40% to 50% in Thailand, Cambodia, and the Philippines.
Experts indicate that the upward trend could continue with the possible arrival of the El Niño climate phenomenon, which is often associated with hotter and drier conditions in several Asian regions. Supply and Demand Outlook While stocks were sufficient between March and May, shortages could emerge if trade flows do not return to normal quickly. A decline in Asian production could affect global rice supply.
However, the CIC estimates that the price increase on the world market may remain limited, given the significant stocks available, particularly in India, one of the world's major producers, and relatively moderate international demand. European and World Market Prices European paddy rice quotations as of June 9, 2026, show varied prices across countries and varieties.
In Italy, Balilla rice was quoted at €480.00 per tonne, while Japonica stood at €451.68 and Indica at €344.07. In Spain, Japonica was priced at €251.00 and Indica at €247.00. Bulgarian Japonica reached €519.00 per tonne.
For white rice, Bulgarian Japonica was quoted at €805.00 per tonne. On the global market, FOB prices for Thai rice (25% broken, parboiled) rose from $441 per tonne on May 20 to $472 per tonne on June 10. Thai 5% broken rice increased from $432 to $462 over the same period. Pakistani 5% broken rice went from $349 to $388 per tonne, while Vietnamese 5% broken rose from $406 to $409.
Indian 5% broken rice fluctuated between $335 and $345 per tonne. US rice (MG) remained stable at $903 per tonne. Freight-on-board prices for European rice as of June 10, 2026, included Japonica at $1,081.90 per tonne, French Long A at $1,230.00, and French Long A parboiled at $1,270.00. Indian cargo rice was quoted at $950 per tonne, while Pakistani Basmati cargo stood at $1,020 per tonne. Italian Rice Sales Italian rice sales for the 2025/2026 campaign, as of June 9, 2026, totaled 1,100,814 tonnes, compared to 1,175,482 tonnes at the same point in the previous campaign, representing a 94% ratio.
Sales of round rice reached 306,454 tonnes (90% of the previous year), medium rice 51,099 tonnes (94%), long A rice 523,713 tonnes (100%), and long B rice 341,038 tonnes (85%).
EU Imports from Third Countries Total EU imports of rice from third countries for the 2025/2026 campaign, as of June 9, 2026, stood at 1,218,305 tonnes, up 2% compared to the 1,185,920 tonnes recorded at the same date in the previous campaign. France imported 200,946 tonnes, Italy 159,095 tonnes, and the Netherlands 178,614 tonnes.
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