Rice futures (RR1:COM) have tumbled to their lowest level in four years, dealing a blow to many farmers across Asia as record harvests and the reversal of India’s export bans flood the market.
Rice futures are at $12.74, around where they were in the middle of 2021.
And the Financial Times reports that the global benchmark, Thai 5 per cent broken white rice, has seen its export price drop to $372.50 per tonne, a 26% decline since late last year and its lowest price since 2017. According to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization, its All Rice Price index is down 13%.
This marks a dramatic turnaround from early last year when prices soared to their highest point since 2008 after India, the world’s largest exporter, introduced export curbs that sparked panic buying. The recent slide began after India started lifting those restrictions in September 2024.
Oscar Tjakra, a senior analyst at Rabobank, told the FT that India’s policy shift was “the main reason” for the price drop, which comes on top of strong production in Thailand and Vietnam that has pushed global output to a record high.
“It’s that simple: there’s just too much stock,” Samarendu Mohanty, of Professor Jayashankar Telangana State Agricultural University, told the FT, noting that India is expecting another record crop after a record harvest last year.
Meanwhile, demand has fallen significantly. Key buyers like Indonesia and the Philippines are not currently in the market. Indonesia imported heavily last year, and the Philippines has banned imports until October to protect domestic prices during its harvest.
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