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Top rice importers like the Philippines can heave a sigh of relief as international prices of the staple grain are expected to fall this year owing to ample global supply, the World Bank said in its latest report.

The World Bank projected that rice quotations will drop by 29 percent in 2025, largely due to sufficient global stockpile and relaxed export restrictions by India, the world’s leading rice exporter.

“Global rice production in 2024-25 is expected to increase by 2 percent, with production in India—which accounts for about 40 percent of global exports—forecast to rise by 5 percent,” the international organization said in its commodities market outlook report.

It also expects rice quotations to remain stable next year as the slight rise in output tallies with the same level of growth in demand.

“Rice prices are projected to be stable in 2026 as preliminary estimates for the 2025-2026 season from the International Grains Council indicate that a small increase in global supply will be matched by a similar increase in consumption.”

This bodes well for the Philippines, the world’s top rice importer, which purchased 4.8 million metric tons (MMT) of the food staple from other countries last year.

In terms of other grains, the World Bank forecasts global corn quotations to edge down by 2 percent in 2025 and 2026, saddled by the increased tariffs on US-China trade and lower crude oil prices, “which reduce demand for ethanol, and thereby for maize.”

“Further downward pressure stems from the price advantage of maize in recent months over soybeans and wheat, which is likely to incentivize maize acreage expansion, with production projected to rebound in the  2025-26 season,” the report read.

“However, the price decline is expected to be limited by tight inventories, projected to reach their lowest levels in over a decade.”

Global wheat prices would also decline in the 2025-26 season as downward demand pressure related to trade tensions is partially offset by tight supply conditions, according to the World Bank.

 “Near-record wheat production is expected to be narrowly outpaced by consumption, resulting in a decline in global stocks.”

The international organization forecasts oils and meals price index to dip by 7 percent this year, mainly driven by reductions in soybean and soybean meal (SBM) prices.

The World Bank projects soybean prices to tumble by 17 percent this year as global output is expected to grow by 6 percent to a new record in the 2024-25 season, with the stocks-to-use ratio climbing close to its 2018-19 record high.

Rice production

Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) indicated that the country’s rice output in the first quarter was relatively flat compared to last year’s level as harvest shrank in January to March.

Figures from the PSA showed that palay output in the first quarter slightly grew by 0.29 percent to 4.7 MMT from the 4.69 MMT recorded in the same period last year.

Data from the state statistics agency indicated that the area harvested in the reference period shrank by 2.31 percent to 1.15 million hectares from last year’s 1.17 million hectares.

The production of irrigated farms grew by 1.62 percent, reaching 3.66 MMT from the previous year’s 3.6 MMT. Rainfed farms produced 1.04 MMT, 4.11 percent lower than the 1.09 MMT recorded in 2024.

The palay output of Central Luzon, the country’s rice granary, rose by 4.25 percent to 808,601 metric tons (MT) from the previous year’s 775,643 MT. Central Luzon remained as the country’s top rice-producing region in the first quarter.

Cagayan Valley, another big rice producer, had 640,426 MT or 15.16 percent lower than the 754,832 MMT recorded in 2024.

This was followed by Western Visayas whose palay output tumbled by 5.11 percent to 549,512 MT in the first quarter of the reference period, from 579,108 MT.

This year, the Department of Agriculture (DA) aims to set a new record palay output of 20.46 MMT, higher than the previous all-time high of 20.06 MMT produced in 2023.

Meanwhile, PSA figures also showed that corn output dropped by 5.06 percent to 2.4 MMT in the first quarter from 2.53 MMT a year ago.

Yellow corn, which is used for making animal feeds, fell by 7.4 percent to 1.93 MMT from the 2.09 MMT recorded last year.

White corn inched up by 5.94 percent to 471,973 MT in the first quarter from 445,519 MT in the previous year.

Irrigation

To produce more crops like rice, the leadership of the House of Representatives on Wednesday vowed to expand access to modern and sustainable irrigation systems for Filipino farmers, highlighting the transformative impact of solar-powered pump irrigation projects (SPIPs) in rural communities.

Speaking at the inauguration of the P50-million Castañas Centro Communal Irrigation System (CIS) in Barangay Castañas, Sariaya, Quezon, Speaker Ferdinand Martin Romualdez said that the project—now irrigating 50 hectares and benefiting 33 farming families—represents more than just infrastructure.

“We are here to open greater opportunities for our farmers and the entire Sariaya community,” said Romualdez. “The goal is simple: to ensure that every crop, every harvest, and every dream of our farmers is not lost due to lack of water.”

He underscored the practical benefits of solar-powered irrigation, noting how it eases the financial burden on farmers.

“Instead of spending up to P80,000 per cropping season on diesel, our irrigation is now solar-powered—cheaper, more reliable, and environmentally friendly.”

This initiative in Sariaya is part of a larger commitment. At the 2025 National Irrigation Administration-Irrigators Association (NIA-IA) Congress last month, Romualdez pledged continued congressional backing for SPIPs nationwide, recognizing their role in uplifting farming communities.

NIA Administrator Eduardo Eddie G. Guillen commended the House’s support, pointing out that SPIPs are more cost-effective and quicker to implement than traditional irrigation systems, costing only P200,000 to P300,000 per hectare compared to P1.2 million for conventional systems.

Source : businessmirror