The Philippines’s rice imports this year could surpass the record-high purchases it made in 2022 as El Niño and the storms that struck the country destroyed standing crops and reduced domestic output in recent months.
In its latest report, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) adjusted upward its estimate of the Philippine’s rice imports for this year to 5 million metric tons (MMT) from the previous 4.7 MMT.
The report noted a surge in shipments from Vietnam as the country grappled with the impact of El Niño and storms.
“Global imports are up with higher imports for the Philippines,” the USDA report read.
According to the international agency, the Philippines is importing record amounts due to a combination of population growth and reduced import tariffs.
“Thus far in 2024, the Philippines relied on Vietnam for more than 80 percent of imports,” the USDA added.
President Marcos Jr. earlier slashed rice tariffs to 15 percent from 35 percent until 2028 as part of the government’s effort to cut rice prices.
Data from the Bureau of Plant Industry (BPI) showed that rice import arrivals as of October 30 reached 3.79 MMT.
Of the volume that arrived in the Philippines, BPI data showed that over 2.97 MMT came from Vietnam, which maintained its status as the country’s top source of imports.
Meanwhile, the USDA also raised its rice imports forecast for the Philippines in 2025 to 5.1 MMT on higher consumption of the staple.
“Global imports are forecast up with increases to Bangladesh, Vietnam, and the Philippines,” the international agency said.
The USDA also said that developments in the global grain market could affect prices across Asian suppliers, such as India’s recent lifting of its ban on non-basmati rice and scrapping the minimum export price (MEP).
‘Looking ahead, prices across Asian suppliers have been under pressure by India’s market re-entry. Given renewed competition from India, Vietnam is forecast to export less in 2025,” the international agency said.
It also forecasts a reduction in Indonesia’s rice imports from Vietnam as the government increased its domestic procurement, but noted that such would not be the case for the Philippines.
“The Philippines is expected to remain a primary destination for Vietnamese exports due to a combination of logistical advantages, competitive prices, and rising consumer demand for high-quality rice.”
Former Agriculture Undersecretary Leocadio Sebastian recently said the Philippines’s rice imports could exceed 4.2 MMT by yearend as bad weather widened the projected shortfall in domestic production.
He said a minimum of 400,000 metric tons (MT) could enter the country in the last two months of 2024.
“It could be more depending again on how our traders will also be reacting to the global market.”
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