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Ghana’s milled rice production could fall by about 18 percent to 800,000 tonnes in the 2026/27 marketing year as weak producer prices, unsold stocks and competition from imports reduce the incentive for farmers to maintain current cultivation levels.

Figures published by the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service show output falling from an estimated 970,000 tonnes in 2025/26 to 800,000 tonnes in 2026/27, a reduction of 170,000 tonnes or 17.5 percent.

The expected decline comes as domestic rice consumption is projected to increase to 1.9 million tonnes, while imports remain around 950,000 tonnes, widening the gap between local production and national demand.

Fresh concerns from local producers have added weight to the outlook, with Spring Agro Industries Limited warning last week that imported rice continues to take a large share of the domestic market and is putting pressure on local producers and investments across the value chain.

The company said stronger demand from consumers, public institutions and businesses would be required to support investment already made in farming and processing.

The projected production decline is being driven mainly by a reduction in cultivated area.

FAS figures show harvested area falling to 300,000 hectares in 2026/27 from 360,000 hectares in 2025/26, representing a 60,000-hectare or 16.7 percent contraction within one marketing year.

Yield is expected to remain relatively stable at about 3.86 tonnesper hectare, compared with about 3.91 tonnes in the preceding season.

The numbers indicate that lower acreage, rather than a major deterioration in farm productivity, is expected to account for most of the production loss.

FAS links the contraction to weak domestic rice prices, which have reduced profitability and discouraged farmers from committing additional land and inputs to production.

The price pressure has emerged despite increased government support for agriculture.

The 2026 Budget provides for the supply of 31,000 tonnes of rice seed and 272,000 tonnes of fertilizer as part of efforts to raise agricultural output and reduce dependence on imported food.

Government had previously distributed about 1,000 tonnes of rice seed and 50,000 tonnes of fertilizer nationwide.

The planned expansion in input support is therefore occurring as the area under rice cultivation is projected to move in the opposite direction.

Agriculture Minister Eric Opoku has acknowledged that low commodity prices have affected farmer incomes, while government continues to distribute fertilizer and improved seeds to reduce production costs.

The pressure facing the rice industry is increasingly concentrated on demand and producer returns.

The Peasant Farmers Association of Ghana has raised concerns over unsold produce and limited purchasing capacity, with some farmers struggling to secure buyers after harvest.

The association has called for additional financial support for the National Food Buffer Stock Company to increase purchases of rice and other grains.

Weak purchasing has increased the risk that farmers will scale back production during subsequent planting cycles.

For the 2026/27 season, that risk is already reflected in the projected 60,000-hectare fall in harvested area.

Consumption is forecast to increase by 50,000 tonnes to 1.9 million tonnes from 1.85 million tonnes in 2025/26. Production, by contrast, is expected to fall by 170,000 tonnes.

The two movements would widen the gap between domestic output and consumption by about 220,000 tonnes compared with the preceding marketing year, before imports and stock adjustments are taken into account.

Ending stocks are also projected to fall to 337,000 tonnes from 487,000 tonnes.

Imports are expected to remain around 950,000 tonnes, leaving foreign rice larger than projected domestic production by about 150,000 tonnes.

At 800,000 tonnes, local production would be equivalent to roughly 42 percent of projected national consumption.

The expected shortfall would therefore keep Ghana heavily dependent on imported rice even as government increases spending on seeds, fertilizer and other support aimed at raising domestic production.

Spring Agro’s warning has also drawn attention to the commercial exposure of businesses already investing in the sector.

The company operates rice farms at Adidome and Akuse as well as a processing facility at Adidome, linking its operations directly to the availability of locally produced paddy and domestic demand for processed rice.

A sustained decline in local production would therefore affect more than farmers.

Lower paddy volumes would reduce throughput for millers and processors and affect aggregators, transporters, input suppliers, distributors and other businesses operating across the value chain.

It could also weaken utilization of existing processing capacity if mills are unable to secure sufficient locally produced rice.

The expected 170,000-tonne decline would therefore carry implications for both primary production and downstream agricultural businesses.

Lower output would also maintain demand for imported rice and preserve the foreign-exchange requirement associated with meeting domestic consumption.

Deputy Minister for Food and Agriculture, John Dumelo, also said last week that West Africa continues to spend more than US$3.5 billion annually importing rice and called for stronger investment in production, processing, storage, transport, financing and marketing.

Imports of about 950,000 tonnes would exceed domestic output by 150,000 tonnes under the FAS outlook, while national consumption would be more than twice projected local production.

A fall from 360,000 hectares to 300,000 hectares would remove about one-sixth of the land currently estimated to be committed to rice production.

With yields projected to remain broadly stable, restoring output would require either a recovery in cultivated area, stronger productivity or both.

Government’s planned input support is intended to address production constraints, but the current market pressure suggests that lower production costs alone may not be enough to sustain acreage when farmers face weak prices and uncertain demand.

Local producers are consequently pushing for stronger institutional procurement.Spring Agro has called on government agencies, schools, private businesses and corporate organizations to increase purchases of Ghanaian rice to provide a more dependable market for farmers and processors.

Government is also pursuing measures aimed at increasing public procurement of locally produced food and managing import competition.

If producer prices remain weak, farmers could reduce cultivation further even as government expands the supply of seed and fertilizer.

Ghana will be left with lower domestic output, rising consumption and imports close to one million tonnes.

The projected fall to 800,000 tonnes would therefore weaken Ghana’s rice import-substitution drive and reduce activity across a value chain government is seeking to expand through higher local production and processing.

Source : ghanaweb