The Federation of Free Farmers (FFF) warned that rice supply in the Philippines could tighten going into January due to the ongoing import ban, with speculation already driving prices higher.
“Right now, the wet-season harvest is still coming in and there is no apparent problem with rice supply, although the FFF said the price of premium imported rice is already increasing because stocks are getting depleted,” FFF national manager Raul Montemayor told Bilyonaryo.com.
The ban, implemented Sept. 1 under Executive Order No. 93 and originally set to last until Oct. 30, restricted shipments from entering the country. Some imports at sea were allowed until Sept. 15.
Malacañang has indicated it may extend the ban but has not formalized a date.
Montemayor said the three-month restriction could remove roughly 1 million tons of rice from the market, equivalent to one month’s consumption. Normally, the country ends the year with 2 million tons of rice inventory, but the FFF estimates only 1 million tons will be available going into 2026.
Imports cannot resume until the ban is lifted, and the next harvest is not expected until March. With daily rice consumption at 37,000 tons, the inventory would last only about 27 days, he said.
“This could explain the speculation about prices rising in January or maybe even earlier,” Montemayor said.
“So far, the ban has done nothing to arrest the drop in palay prices and appears to have worsened the situation,” he pointed out.
The FFF has called on the government to restore rice tariffs to 35% from 15% and has opposed the import ban, which it said violates World Trade Organization rules.
The group tracks rice import data from the Bureau of Customs, which shows the country imports an average of 300,000–350,000 tons of rice per month.
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