It is unusual that Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Minister Norikazu Suzuki expressed his intention to revise a rice production increase policy so soon after taking office, only a little more than two months since it was last changed. It must not go back to a policy that lacks a consumer perspective.
Regarding the production increase policy set by former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s administration, Suzuki stated, “Producers are feeling tremendously confused.” He also pointed out that farmers are worried about a potential collapse in next year’s rice prices due to oversupply.
About the production increase policy, he also said, “If it is perceived as a review, then it will be a review.”
Ishiba decided at a meeting of related Cabinet ministers in August to change the postwar rice agricultural policy. He reviewed the de facto rice acreage reduction policy and shifted toward increasing production. Many people in the country surely welcomed this move, expecting prices to settle at levels where they could eat rice with peace of mind going forward.
It is hard to understand why Suzuki has continuously made statements that seem to betray those expectations.
The most critical task of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s administration is to tackle high prices. The average price of brand-name rice varieties, such as Koshihikari, has been about ¥4,500 per five kilograms. Isn’t it contradictory to leave rice prices high while trying to revise the policy of increasing production?
Although Suzuki has expressed his desire to distribute rice vouchers, this would not directly lead to lower prices and would be nothing more than a stopgap measure.
In addition, he stated, “Prices are determined within the market,” indicating a passive stance regarding the government’s involvement in the issue.
However, since the 1970s, rice agricultural policy has maintained high prices for a long time through government-led production adjustments via rice acreage reduction, effectively influencing prices in recent years as well. Suzuki should first demonstrate a strong determination to stabilize prices.
Last week, the agriculture ministry announced its forecast of 7.11 million tons for the 2026 production of rice to be eaten at meals. This is a reduction of about 360,000 tons from 2025, which saw favorable crop conditions.
Since demand is projected to be 6.94 million to 7.11 million tons, the production figure was likely set so supply would not be much higher than demand, ensuring that prices would not collapse.
Despite the decision at the Cabinet meeting outlining the policy to increase production, if the newly appointed agriculture minister unilaterally shifts toward a policy that seems to reverse course back to reduced production, it will only confuse both consumers and producers.
Postwar rice agricultural policy has given too much consideration to producers who are concerned about price decreases, and does not take into account the perspective of the consumer.
The ministry’s slow and erratic response to the surge in rice prices since summer last year can be seen as a sudden eruption of these long-standing problems. The ministry must not forget this lesson.
There is an urgent need to strengthen the production base, due to intensifying disasters, global warming and heightened food security risks. The ministry should promote rice policies that give the public peace of mind.
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