LAGOS – AFEX has forecasted price stabilization for staple grains such as maize, soybean, paddy rice, and sorghum, despite Nigeria’s persistent food inflation crisis.
In a statement released at the weekend while unveiling its 2025 annual commodities outlook, AFEX projected that domestic grain prices would stabilise, driven by the government’s recent implementation of a 150-day import duty suspension on maize.
This policy is expected to boost supply and alleviate price pressures.
The company noted that Nigeria’s economy has been grappling with record-high inflation, which surged to 34.8% in December 2024, alongside exchange rate volatility and structural challenges in the agricultural sector. Key concerns include climate change, soaring input costs, and declining productivity.
The AFEX report, which analyzes global and regional market trends while forecasting future price and production patterns, provides critical insights into the agricultural value chain.
It highlights market challenges and opportunities while offering an accurate projection of price movements and production volumes for the upcoming season.
“In 2024, commodity prices rose by 4%, contrasting with a 7% price decline recorded in 2023. The previous year’s drop resulted from a 9% decrease in food prices and a 5% reduction in raw material costs. However, 2024 saw an 8% decline in food prices due to an 11% reduction in oils and meals prices and a significant 16% decrease in grain prices,” AFEX reported.
“Conversely, a sharp 64% increase in beverage prices and a 5% rise in raw material costs ultimately drove overall prices upward. On the global stage, maize production reached a record 1.13 billion metric tonnes in 2024, reflecting a 6% year-on-year increase, which in turn pushed maize prices down by 25% worldwide.
“However, maize prices in Nigeria surged by 92% year-on-year, closing at approximately NGN660, 000 per metric tonne, with a peak in July when prices hit NGN908,000 per metric tonne. Similarly, paddy rice prices increased by 6%, attributed to India’s export restrictions, seasonal supply constraints, and the adverse effects of El Niño on global rice production.”
Akinyinka Akintunde, AFEX Nigeria’s President and CEO, while speaking at the report’s launch, emphasised the importance of data-driven insights in stabilizing Nigeria’s agricultural value chain.
“Amid record food inflation and macroeconomic pressures, this report offers valuable guidance on mitigating climate risks, optimizing input costs, and boosting productivity. These measures are crucial for addressing food insecurity and driving sustainable growth in the sector,” Akintundestated.
He further stressed the need for stakeholders in the agricultural sector to collaborate on innovative solutions that strengthen the value chain.
While acknowledging that the report represents a step toward resolving the nation’s food crisis, AFEX underscored the necessity of policy coordination and private-sector engagement. It highlighted the role of capital markets as a key catalyst for agricultural investment.
Ikenna Egbukole, Executive Chairman of MITSUN Group, echoed these sentiments, stating, “The overlapping challenges of climate volatility, fragmented supply chains, and underinvestment require urgent and coordinated action. Addressing food insecurity demands a holistic approach—leveraging policy reforms, private-sector innovations, and capital market interventions to fortify the entire agricultural ecosystem.”
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