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From record-breaking global temperatures to an unrelenting onslaught of natural disasters, 2024 has become a pivotal year in the story of our planet’s changing climate. This year will be the first year in which global temperatures breach the critical 1.5°C threshold outlined in the Paris Agreement—an alarming benchmark of a warming world. The consequences? Devastating floods, catastrophic wildfires, and billion-dollar storms have left no corner of the globe untouched. In this post, we’ll take a closer look at:

Heat records shattered in 2024

2024 is on track to become the second consecutive year of record-high average global temperatures. After 2023 shattered the record for annual global temperature, there was some hope that there might be some cooling in 2024 as an El Niño pattern seemed likely to give way to a La Niña. Unfortunately, that did not happen. Instead, as we come into the final weeks of the year, 2024 is on track to be even hotter than last year.

In fact, the global mean temperature for the first nine months of the year was 1.54°C above pre-industrial levels. As a result, there is a strong probability that 2024 could become the first year in which annual global temperature exceeds the 1.5°C threshold established by the Paris Agreement. The 2015 Paris Agreement is an international treaty in which 196 parties around the world agreed to take measures to try to limit long-term warming to less than the 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

2024 will likely become the first year that global annual temperature exceeds 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, an important benchmark of global warming. 

Certainly, a single year – or even two years – is not enough to constitute a long-term change in climate. And, while long-term warming remains below the 1.5° threshold, the past decade is the warmest on record and appears to indicate an accelerating upward trend.

A year of unrelenting disasters

Unfortunately, rising temperatures come with more volatile weather, such as more frequent and severe heat waves. Warmer air can hold onto more moisture. In fact, for every 1°C of global warming, the atmosphere can hold 7% more water vapor, which can cause droughts to become more severe. And, when it does rain, increased moisture and energy can result in more severe storms and flooding.

This is exactly what we’ve seen in 2024 as the costs of natural disasters have continued to climb. According to a recent report from Swiss Re, natural disasters, so far, have cost the world US $310 billion in 2024. That’s up 6% from the prior year and a 29% increase over the ten-year average. Insured losses stand at US $135 billion, which represents a 17% increase over the previous year and a 38% increase from the 10-year average.

Economic losses from natural disasters in 2024 are up 38% over the 10-year average.

Those costs can be traced not only to an overall increase in the number of natural disasters, but also to an increase in their severity. For example, NOAA reports that the U.S. has suffered 24 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disasters, so far, in 2024, which together accounted for at least $61.6 billion in losses. This is substantially greater than the average number of billion-dollar events that the U.S. suffered from 1980-2023, which was 8.5 events per year. It is also about 17% greater than the most recent 5-year average of 20.4 events per year.

Let’s take a closer look at the impacts of some specific types of natural hazards over the past year:

Rising flood risks

All the way back in October, the National Weather Service in the U.S. had already issued a record-breaking 91 flash flood emergencies for 2024. What’s more, the five most active years have all occurred in the last decade. (Note that flash flood emergencies account for only about 1% of all flash flood warnings and are reserved for cases that pose the most extreme threats to life and bring potential for catastrophic damage.)

Of course, flood-related disasters have not been confined to the U.S. Swiss RE’s report noted that flooding has been a major driver of insured losses in Europe and Asia. Severe floods in Europe and the UAE have resulted in estimated insured losses of about US $13 billion for the year to date, making it the third costliest year for flooding. However, Europe accounted for US$10 billion of those losses, making it the second most costly year for flooding in Europe.

In 2024, the U.S. had a record number of flash flood emergencies, while Europe had its second-most costly year of flooding on record.

Source : aem