Top News

The global rice market is projected to grow steadily, with volume expected to reach 889 million tons by 2035 and value projected to hit $634.8 billion. In 2024, consumption slightly decreased to 793 million tons after four years of growth, while market revenue rose to $516.2 billion. China and India dominate both consumption and production, accounting for over half of global volumes. International trade expanded significantly, with imports reaching 57 million tons and exports at 59 million tons. India remains the largest exporter, while the Philippines showed the fastest import growth. The market is characterized by stable prices and increasing demand, particularly for semi-milled rice which constitutes 75% of global imports.

Key Findings

• Global rice market projected to reach 889M tons in volume and $634.8B in value by 2035

• China and India dominate consumption and production, together accounting for 57% of global consumption

• International rice trade expanded significantly in 2024, with imports reaching 57M tons and exports at 59M tons

• Semi-milled rice constitutes 75% of global imports and 78% of exports, dominating international trade

• The Philippines showed the strongest import growth while India maintained position as top exporter

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for rice worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.1% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 889M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.9% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $634.8B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

World's Consumption of Rice

After four years of growth, consumption of rice decreased by -0.4% to 793M tons in 2024. Overall, consumption, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 2.6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs at 795M tons in 2023, and then contracted modestly in the following year.

The global rice market revenue rose slightly to $516.2B in 2024, increasing by 4.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.0% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the global market attained the maximum level in 2024 and is likely to see steady growth in the near future.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were China (208M tons), India (187M tons) and Bangladesh (59M tons), together comprising 57% of global consumption. Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Myanmar and Thailand lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 21%.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for the Philippines (with a CAGR of +2.5%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest rice markets worldwide were China ($135.1B), India ($121.6B) and Indonesia ($38.1B), together accounting for 57% of the global market. Bangladesh, Vietnam, the Philippines, Myanmar and Thailand lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 21%.

The Philippines, with a CAGR of +2.8%, saw the highest growth rate of market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of rice per capita consumption in 2024 were Myanmar (429 kg per person), Vietnam (367 kg per person) and Bangladesh (343 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for India (with a CAGR of +1.1%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the per capita consumption figures.

Production

World's Production of Rice

Global rice production reduced to 795M tons in 2024, leveling off at the year before. Over the period under review, production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 when the production volume increased by 2.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum volume at 800M tons in 2023, and then contracted slightly in the following year. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, rice production dropped to $562.3B in 2024 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 with an increase of 26% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak level of $572.2B, and then fell slightly in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were China (208M tons), India (205M tons) and Bangladesh (58M tons), with a combined 59% share of global production. Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar, the Philippines, Pakistan and Cambodia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 25%.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Cambodia (with a CAGR of +2.5%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

In 2024, the global average rice yield reduced to 4.7 tons per ha, approximately reflecting 2023 figures. Over the period under review, the yield, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 1.3%. The global yield peaked at 4.8 tons per ha in 2023, and then fell modestly in the following year.

Harvested Area

In 2024, the total area harvested in terms of rice production worldwide contracted slightly to 168M ha, leveling off at 2023 figures. Over the period under review, the harvested area, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 2.5%. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to rice production reached the maximum at 168M ha in 2023, and then fell slightly in the following year.

Imports

World's Imports of Rice

In 2024, the amount of rice imported worldwide expanded significantly to 57M tons, surging by 12% against the year before. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 12%. Global imports peaked in 2024 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, rice imports rose notably to $35.9B in 2024. Overall, total imports indicated a pronounced increase from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, imports increased by +34.4% against 2018 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 when imports increased by 16% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum in 2024 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

The Philippines (4.8M tons) and Indonesia (4.2M tons) were the main importers of rice in 2024, amounting to approx. 8.4% and 7.4% of total imports, respectively. The following importers - Iraq (2M tons), Cote d'Ivoire (1.8M tons), Malaysia (1.7M tons), Benin (1.7M tons), China (1.6M tons), Saudi Arabia (1.6M tons), Senegal (1.5M tons) and the United States (1.4M tons) - each reached a 24% share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for the Philippines (with a CAGR of +25.2%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the Philippines ($2.5B), Indonesia ($1.8B) and Saudi Arabia ($1.8B) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2024, together accounting for 17% of global imports.

The Philippines, with a CAGR of +27.6%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

Semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice represented the largest imported product with an import of about 43M tons, which recorded 75% of total imports. It was distantly followed by broken rice (7.3M tons), paddy rice (3.6M tons) and husked (brown) rice (3M tons), together creating a 25% share of total imports.

Semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice was also the fastest-growing in terms of imports, with a CAGR of +3.6% from 2013 to 2024. At the same time, paddy rice (+2.8%), broken rice (+2.3%) and husked (brown) rice (+1.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice (+3.1 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while the shares of the other products remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice ($28.3B) constitutes the largest type of rice imported worldwide, comprising 79% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by broken rice ($3.1B), with an 8.7% share of global imports. It was followed by husked (brown) rice, with a 6.3% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the value of semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice imports stood at +3.5%. With regard to the other imported products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: broken rice (+1.8% per year) and husked (brown) rice (+1.6% per year).

Import Prices By Type

In 2024, the average rice import price amounted to $634 per ton, declining by -5.1% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2023 an increase of 14%. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $668 per ton, and then reduced in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was husked (brown) rice ($750 per ton), while the price for broken rice ($426 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by paddy rice (+2.8%), while the other products experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Import Prices By Country

The average rice import price stood at $634 per ton in 2024, reducing by -5.1% against the previous year. In general, the import price, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2023 an increase of 14% against the previous year. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $668 per ton, and then declined in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Saudi Arabia ($1,097 per ton), while Senegal ($364 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Philippines (+2.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World's Exports of Rice

Global rice exports was estimated at 59M tons in 2024, growing by 7.2% against the previous year's figure. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when exports increased by 18% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure at 59M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, rice exports amounted to $38.4B in 2024. In general, total exports indicated tangible growth from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, exports increased by +57.8% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when exports increased by 20%. The global exports peaked in 2024 and are likely to see steady growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

In 2024, India (18M tons), distantly followed by Thailand (9.9M tons), Vietnam (7.2M tons), Pakistan (6.5M tons), the United States (3.8M tons) and Myanmar (2.8M tons) represented the key exporters of rice, together generating 81% of total exports. The following exporters - Cambodia (1.3M tons), China (1.1M tons) and Uruguay (1.1M tons) - each amounted to a 6% share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exporting countries, was attained by Myanmar (with a CAGR of +14.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, India ($11.6B), Thailand ($6.5B) and Pakistan ($4.2B) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2024, together comprising 58% of global exports. Vietnam, the United States, Myanmar, Cambodia, China and Uruguay lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 26%.

Cambodia, with a CAGR of +12.8%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

In 2024, semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice (46M tons) was the largest type of rice, mixing up 78% of total exports. Broken rice (6.4M tons) took an 11% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by paddy rice (6.4%) and husked (brown) rice (4.5%).

From 2013 to 2024, average annual rates of growth with regard to semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice exports of stood at +3.2%. At the same time, broken rice (+4.3%), paddy rice (+4.1%) and husked (brown) rice (+1.8%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, broken rice emerged as the fastest-growing type exported in the world, with a CAGR of +4.3% from 2013-2024. The shares of the largest types remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice ($31.4B) remains the largest type of rice supplied worldwide, comprising 82% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by broken rice ($3B), with a 7.9% share of global exports. It was followed by paddy rice, with a 5.3% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice exports totaled +3.4%. With regard to the other exported products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: broken rice (+5.5% per year) and paddy rice (+6.3% per year).

Export Prices By Type

In 2024, the average rice export price amounted to $650 per ton, increasing by 4.4% against the previous year. In general, the export price recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 when the average export price increased by 19%. The global export price peaked in 2024 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exported products. In 2024, the product with the highest price was husked (brown) rice ($720 per ton), while the average price for exports of broken rice ($470 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by paddy rice (+2.1%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the average rice export price amounted to $650 per ton, increasing by 4.4% against the previous year. In general, the export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2023 an increase of 19% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Cambodia ($740 per ton), while Myanmar ($486 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Vietnam (+1.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: indexbox