Top News

AS the Philippines imports around a third of its rice requirements, the country faces heightened risks of higher rice prices as the expected super El Niño threatens agricultural production across Southeast Asia, a unit of credit rating agency Fitch said.

“Rice stocks have fallen below 2023 levels in Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines, leaving the Philippines, which imports around a third of its rice, most exposed to higher prices,” BMI Country Risk & Industry Research said in its latest commentary.

The research firm said the Philippines was particularly vulnerable to tighter rice supplies and higher prices, as it is a major rice importer, leaving the country exposed should there be production disruptions in the region.

BMI warned that drought risks would rise across Southeast Asia during the expected El Niño, threatening agricultural output and increasing the possibility of food price pressures.

Rice is among the key commodities at risk, alongside sugar, palm oil and coffee.

Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed that the country’s rice stocks fell by 8 percent year on year to 1.91 million metric tons (MT) as of Sept. 1, from 2.07 million MT a year earlier.

The volume was also 12.4 percent lower than the 2.18 million MT recorded in August.

Rice inventories held by the National Food Authority ( A) plunged by 36.1 percent year on year, while household stocks edged down by 0.6 percent.

Meanwhile, the country’s rice imports rose by 20.06 percent year on year to 4.07 million metric tons (MT) as of Oct. 1, ahead of the anticipated El Niño, data from the Bureau of Plant Industry showed.

The volume was higher than the 3.39 million MT recorded during the same period last year.

Vietnam remained the country’s top rice supplier, accounting for 2.73 million MT of imports, followed by Thailand with 552,667 MT and Myanmar with 418,854 MT.

BMI said the record rice stocks in India, the world’s largest rice exporter, could help limit the risk of another sharp increase in global rice prices.

“India’s record rice stocks reduce the risk of a repeat of the pre-emptive export curbs that drove the 2023/24 global price spike,” BMI said.

BMI said the expected El Niño would raise drought risks most significantly across Southern Africa, Central America, South America and Southeast Asia.

In previous El Niño events, the share of cropland exposed to high-intensity drought increased by an average of 11 to 12 percentage points in these vulnerable regions.

The Philippines, Thailand, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Guyana and Suriname were among the countries identified as particularly exposed to agricultural drought.

Source : msn