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THE increase in commodity prices in July may have been flat due to the continued decline in rice prices, according to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

In its Month-Ahead inflation forecast, BSP projected July 2025 inflation to settle within the range of 0.5 to 1.3 percent. The official data will be released by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) on August 5.

BSP said that, notwithstanding increases in other food items as well as utilities and the depreciation of the peso, the decline in rice prices is enough to offset the impact of these price increases.

“Upward price pressures for the month are likely to be driven by higher meat and vegetable prices partly due to unfavorable weather conditions, increased electricity rates, elevated domestic fuel costs, and the depreciation of the peso. These price pressures, however, could be partially offset by the continued decline in rice prices,” BSP said.

Rice has a weight of 8.87 percent in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of All Income Households, and as much as 17.87 percent in the CPI for the Bottom 30 percent or poorest households nationwide.

“Filipinos are still spending but cautiously. While consumer sentiment has improved slightly, households remain sensitive to price shocks,” Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) Senior Research Fellow John Paolo Rivera told BusinessMirror on Thursday.

“Spending is concentrated on essentials and remittance-driven consumption, but discretionary and big-ticket purchases are still recovering unevenly,” he added.

Rivera, however, noted that there have been increases in vehicle sales, digital transactions, and revenge spending on travel and food. This indicates that middle class Filipinos are “spending again.”

The Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines, Inc. (Campi) showed total vehicle sales from January to May 2025 reached 190,429 units, which is a 1.7-percent increase from the 187,191 units sold during the same period last year.

The private-sector led World Travel & Tourism Council sees tourism’s contribution to the Philippine economy at 21 percent, adding some $102.6 billion (P5.6 trillion/$1:P57.5) to the gross domestic product (GDP) this year.

Source : businessmirror