Thailand may face a critical shortage of urea fertilizer in the coming months, raising concerns for rice farmers ahead of the Songkran festival. Rising fuel costs, inconsistent government reporting, and heavy dependence on imports from the Middle East are increasing the risk of reduced crop yields and quality.
According to Krungthai COMPASS, Thailand relies on imported chemical fertilizers for 95% of total use, around 5–6 million tons annually. In 2025, the country imported 2.2 million tons from the Middle East—34% of all fertilizer imports—with nitrogen-based fertilizers making up 50% of the total. Of these, 1.8 million tons came from Saudi Arabia (33%), Oman (11%), and Qatar (9%). The analysis warned that such dependence creates a high risk of chemical fertilizer shortages, which could reduce both quantity and quality of agricultural output. Rising electricity costs in late 2026 could further increase farmers’ production expenses.
They also noted that domestic fertilizer stocks are projected to last only until August 2026. Early rice planting starting in May may still proceed with existing stocks, but late-season planting in September–October faces higher risk of shortages. Rice accounts for 76% of total rice production in Thailand, and the analysis indicated that a 1% increase in imported fertilizer prices could reduce yield per rai by 0.06%. Domestic demand for urea from May to August is projected at 16–17 million bags.
Opposition MPs have raised serious concerns:
- Chaichana Dechdecho (Democrat Party) highlighted that rising fuel costs (6 baht/liter) and inconsistent government reporting could exacerbate farmers’ costs and disrupt essential goods. He criticized conflicting fertilizer stock information—from 1.52 million tons in early March to estimates lasting only until April—and called for transparent disclosure, price control, and strategic planning.
- Chao Meekhuad (Democrat Party) emphasized that a fertilizer shortage could be more damaging than high fuel prices, potentially threatening yields and the financial stability of farmers.
- Decharut Sukkumnoed (People’s Party) urged full disclosure of fertilizer stocks, import plans, and production costs, and called for strict enforcement against hoarding and price manipulation.
- Pai Leeke (Kla Tham Party) warned that urea (40-0-0) for rice may run out before Songkran. He provided data showing only 138,000 tons of urea (46-0-0) remaining with importers and producers as of March 10. He criticized government claims of sufficient supply as misleading.
Opposition MPs collectively proposed discount coupons for fertilizer purchases, arguing that the Ministry’s Green Flag program—targeting 1 million bags (~50,000 tons)—covers only about 1% of total fertilizer demand and is insufficient to meet farmers’ needs. They also called for urgent inter-ministerial coordination to prevent shortages.
Yesterday, Acting Commerce Minister Suphajee Suthumpun said that domestic fertilizer stocks are sufficient until April, with additional supplies possible at varying prices. The ministry has added seven new essential items under price control, bringing the total to 66, and is promoting support measures for farmers and fishermen, including subsidies and organic fertilizers to reduce import dependence. Suphajee said the government is working with businesses to offer “Thai Help Thai” products at special prices across all 77 provinces and assisting vulnerable groups through the state welfare card program, with authorities monitoring stocks to prevent shortages or hoarding.
If imports or restocking fail to normalize, the risk of fertilizer shortages could reduce crop quantity and quality, particularly for late-season rice. Analysts and opposition MPs warn that without stronger measures—including price control, transparency, and direct farmer support—Thailand could face significant impacts on agricultural production this year.
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