A weak monsoon is expected to affect India’s planting and yield prospects for most grains in 2026-27, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.
The 2026 monsoon is expected to be among the weaker and more erratic in terms of month-to-month swings in precipitation. A delayed onset and weak monsoon in June was followed by a recovery in July and faltering rain again in August, the FAS said. The second half of the monsoon is expected to stay below normal.
Milled rice production was revised down to 147 million tonnes, down 154 million tonnes in 2025-26.
Monthly rice exports remained steady since the beginning of 2026 despite trade disruptions due to Middle East crisis and various African markets imposing import restrictions owing to higher sales to other markets.
Exports are expected to stay unchanged in 2026-27 at 25 million tonnes. Indian rice prices will remain competitive as the government continues to offload excess rice stocks in the domestic market to bring down the government stocks to manageable levels, the FAS said.
Corn production forecast for 2026-27 was lowered to 50 million tonnes on expected lower sowing and yields due to weak 2026 monsoon. That’s down from 55 million tonnes in 2025-26.
Exports in 2025-26 are estimated at 2.5 million tonnes with weak domestic prices fueling exports to neighboring markets and south Asia. For 2026-27, exports are forecast down to 1.5 million tonnes, the FAS said.
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