The total rice export value is forecast at around 3.94 billion USD for 2026, down about 4% from 2025 due to low average export prices in the first months of the year. However, the recovery in prices since July is expected to help improve export turnover in the remaining months.
Vietnam’s rice exports are expected to improve in value during the final months of 2026 as export prices show signs of recovery while stronger demand in several major markets could support shipments.
The Vietnam Food Association reported that as of August 15, Vietnam exported an estimated 5.726 million tonnes of rice. The full-year volume is projected at about 7.738 million tonnes.
The total rice export value is forecast at around 3.94 billion USD for 2026, down about 4% from 2025 due to low average export prices in the first months of the year. However, the recovery in prices since July is expected to help improve export turnover in the remaining months.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, several developments in the global rice market could support Vietnam’s exports toward the end of the year.
Export prices in July were 5.8% higher than in the same month last year, marking the first year-on-year increase in 2026 and the highest level since June 2025. If prices remain at this level, export revenue could improve in the coming months.
Global rice supply and demand in the 2026–2027 crop year are forecast to move into a deficit while global rice trade is expected to reach a record level. The possibility of a strong El Nino could also encourage countries to increase food reserves.
The Philippines, Vietnam’s largest rice export market, has confirmed that it will not suspend rice imports in 2026 and will continue purchases to build up reserves. It is expected to import around 5.6 million tonnes of rice in the 2026–2027 crop year, the world’s largest volume. In the first seven months of 2026, its rice imports rose about 27% year on year.
China has also recorded a sharp increase in rice import volume, particularly broken rice used as animal feed, creating greater opportunities for Vietnam’s raw rice, broken rice and glutinous rice.
Nigeria is forecast to face a rice shortfall of around 3.5 million tonnes in the 2026–2027 crop year, promising chances for Vietnamese exporters if they can improve price competitiveness. Kenya has also waived import duties on white rice under a quota through November 2026.
Domestically, tighter rice supplies are reducing pressure on farmers and traders to sell at low prices, giving exporters more room to negotiate. Notably, high-quality, low-emission certified rice has fetched more than 1,000 USD per tonne in some markets, including Japan, the EU and Australia, highlighting the potential to increase the value of Vietnamese rice.
Market and input cost risks
Despite these favourable factors, the rice export sector still faces several challenges.
The Philippines is considering additional safeguard duties on the grain from Vietnam, as well as Thailand, Myanmar and Pakistan. If approved, the combined tariff could exceed 35%. This is a significant risk because the Philippines currently accounts for the largest share of Vietnam’s rice export value.
Indonesia has no plans to import rice in 2026 as its domestic production and reserves remain high, making this market almost shut down to Vietnamese rice for the time being.
Some African markets, including Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, have sharply reduced imports of Vietnamese rice because it is more expensive than that from India and Pakistan in the mainstream segment. Meanwhile, Thailand is strengthening its presence in China through government-to-government contracts, and Cambodia is increasing shipments of fragrant rice, creating stronger direct competition for Vietnamese grain.
Input costs, including fertiliser, transportation and energy, remain high amid geopolitical tensions and export restrictions imposed by some countries, affecting farmers’ production efficiency.
In addition, El Nino is predicted to affect the 2026–2027 winter–spring crop. Drought and saltwater intrusion could occur from late December 2026 to April 2027, requiring the sector to prepare response measures early, including adjustments to planting schedules and crop varieties./.
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