Japan’s domestic rice consumption in the year from July 2025 hit a record low of 6.83 million tons on a preliminary basis in terms of brown rice, sources said Tuesday.
This was largely due to an increase in rice imports as the price of domestically produced rice jumped in the wake of severe shortages in summer 2024 and later.
The data was presented at a meeting of the Council on Food, Agriculture and Rural Area Policies, which advises the agriculture minister.
In September last year, the agriculture ministry estimated demand for domestic rice over a one-year period would be between 6.97 million and 7.11 million tons. The projection was lowered to 6.91 million to 7.04 million tons in March this year, but actual consumption was even short of the revised range.
The rice market turmoil since summer 2024 came partly because the government’s demand prediction turned out to be far below actual consumption.
Subsequently, the government changed the prediction method in September last year partly by adding consumption by foreign visitors.
Meanwhile, rice production for the 2025 crop reached 7.47 million tons. As a result, private-sector rice inventories totaled 2.43 million tons, a record high, at the end of last month.
Retail rice prices, which have been on a downtrend since peaking at the end of last year, are consequently expected to fall further.
The ministry now forecasts the 2026 harvest at 7.32 million tons, compared with 6.93 million to 7.11 million tons in estimated demand.
Private-sector inventories are seen increasing to up to 2.81 million tons at the end of June 2027.
Given the massive surplus, rice farmers and traders are asking the government for early buybacks after part of the rice stockpiled by the state was released mainly last year to ease shortages and curb surges in prices.
The ministry plans to decide the timing and volume of such buybacks after confirming the harvest situation for the 2026 rice crop and other factors.
The decision is expected to be made in or after late August, when the harvest situation as of Aug. 15 will be announced.
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