China will secure larger rice shipments this year following the decline in quotations from Thailand and Vietnam—the Philippines’s top sources of the food staple.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) revised upward its projection for China’s rice imports this year to 2.2 million metric tons (MMT) as exporter quotes tumbled below domestic prices.
This was higher than its previous forecast of 2 MMT, owing to expected bolstered demand spurred by lower global rice prices, the agency said.
The USDA noted that India’s return to the export market continued to put downward pressure on world prices, prompting an acceleration of China’s total rice imports in the final quarter of 2024.
The East Asian nation imported around 1.6 MMT of rice last year, the lowest since 2011.
China saw a sharp decline in foreign rice demand after India placed trade restrictions on milled rice exports last 2023, the agency said.
“As global prices shot sharply higher, imported prices became uncompetitive relative to domestic rice, and Chinese buyers were noticeably absent from the market,” the USDA said.
India, however, eased restrictions after lifting its ban on non-basmati rice shipments last year. The South Asian nation is the world’s largest rice exporter.
“After India lifted its restrictions in September 2024, all major Asian exporter prices declined, and China’s imports grew exponentially,” the USDA said in its latest report.
“Major suppliers Thailand and Vietnam are expected to have increased sales to China [in 2024],” it added.
The USDA said that last month, global export quotations registered declines, with Vietnamese prices decreasing by $55 to $394 per metric ton (MT) while Thai prices dropped by $57 to $437 per MT with fewer sales to Indonesia.
“Pakistani quotes decreased $52 to $400 per MT and Indian quotes fell $34 to $410 per MT as India’s return to the export market continues to create downward pressure on global prices.”
It added that United States prices dropped $30 to $697 per MT due to weaker sales to Latin America while Uruguayan prices fell $32 to $668 per MT as buyers wait for the harvest of the new crop.
Meanwhile, the international agency said global rice production remained high despite a reduction this month for Sri Lanka while global consumption was raised following upward revisions for China and Indonesia.
“Imports are forecast up based on increases for China. Exports are also forecast higher driven by India,” the USDA said.
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