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Households are staring at high food prices as drought conditions hit key food-producing regions with domestic rice production being the most affected so far, amid a legal battle which is threatening to block emergency imports.

Rice has increasingly become a staple food commodity inKenyan households, particularly in urban areas and Arid and Semi-Arid Land(ASAL) counties where climate stress has narrowed food choices.

With erraticrainfall disrupting planting cycles and reducing yields, rice prices arealready showing signs of volatility, raising fears of a wider food inflationspiral that could spill over into maize and other staples.

According to datapresented before the High Court, challenging importation of rice, Kenya’s ricedeficit is structural, persistent and worsening.

National demandstands at between 1.3 and 1.5 million metric tonnes annually yet domesticproduction supplies less than 20 per cent of that requirement.

“If rice becomesunaffordable, households shift to maize, pushing up maize prices as well. Suchknock-on effects could undermine national efforts to stabilise food prices andprotect vulnerable populations,” the government said in its submissions to thecourt, presented by State Counsel Samuel Kaumba and Erick Theuri representing government.

According to databy the Ministry of Agriculture, the pressure is expected to intensify in thefirst half of 2026 (January to June).

Kenya will requireabout 750,000 metric tonnes of rice, but domestic production for the sameperiod is projected at just 110,000 metric tonnes of paddy rice, a shortfallthat cannot be bridged through local stocks alone.

The Ministry ofAgriculture and Livestock Development’s Contingency Emergency Response ActionPlan 2025 paints an even starker picture, projecting a rice deficit of 381,225metric tonnes by the end of January 2026.

These supply gapsare unfolding against a backdrop of worsening food insecurity. By November2025, an estimated 1.8 million people in ASAL counties were alreadyexperiencing high levels of acute food insecurity.

Without timelyintervention, that number is projected to rise sharply to 3.5 million people, inwhat the state argues will be the human cost of delayed policy action.

Climate forecastspresented to the Court show erratic and below-average rainfall across keyfood-producing regions, disrupting planting calendars and sharply reducingyields.

For irrigated rice schemes such as Mwea, Aheroand Bunyala, reduced water availability has increased production costs andconstrained output. In rain-fed areas, failed or delayed rains have wiped outentire planting seasons.

During detailedsubmissions before the High Court sitting in Kerugoya, State Counsel SamuelKaumba, Erick Theuri and other government lawyers warned that rice prices couldrise sharply if the court blocks imports needed to plug the widening nationaldeficit.

The case, pits the government against substituted petitioners James Kamau Murango and David MunyiMathenge, who are challenging Gazette Notice No. 10353 of July 28, 2025, whichauthorised the importation of rice on a duty-free basis.

The State told theCourt that the lapse of the Gazette Notice had already triggered pricevolatility in non-basmati long-grain rice, with retail prices fluctuatingsharply in the second half of 2025, a warning sign of what could follow ifimports are blocked entirely.

Government lawyersargued that rising rice prices disproportionately affect low-income households,particularly in informal settlements and drought-affected counties, where foodconsumes the largest share of household income.

The Ministryfirmly rejected claims that duty-free imports were designed to benefit a fewindividuals, maintaining that the policy was anchored in the Constitution’sobligations under Articles 21 and 43, which guarantee the right to food.

Blocking imports,the government has warned, would expose millions of Kenyans to higher food prices,reduced access to staple foods and heightened hunger, particularly in ASALcounties already grappling with drought.

Addressing claimsthat locally produced rice remains unsold, the Ministry explained that themop-up of local rice has been ongoing, lawful and conducted in good faiththrough the Kenya National Trading Corporation (KNTC).

Since 2020, KNTChas purchased rice from cooperatives in Mwea, Ahero, Bunyala, Kuja, Kano andBura, among other schemes, for redistribution to public institutions such asschools, hospitals and prisons.

However, the government was emphatic that even full absorption of available local stockscannot bridge the national deficit nor stabilise prices countrywide.

“Localised surpluscannot be mistaken for national food security,” the State submitted, stressingthat food security must be assessed at a national scale, not based onconditions in a single production zone.

Source : msn