The agriculture ministry plans to cease publishing its rice crop situation index, which has been used for almost seven decades, after farmers and retailers voiced concerns that government data is overstated, it said Monday.
The rice crop situation index — or the ratio of rice yield per 10 ares (1,000 square meters) to the average yield per 10 ares — shows the condition of the crop. For rice produced in 2024, the crop situation index was in the same range as previous years at 101, or 1% more rice crops than the average year, according to the agriculture ministry.
“Amid speculation from the public and farmers about the various data and statistics on rice, our ministry debated over what is really the best way to make revisions,” farm minister Shinjiro Koizumi told reporters, adding, “We’ve decided that to release the index will mean doing nothing about this inaccuracy.”
The gap between the crop situation index and farmers’ testimonies occurred because the ministry was using outdated sampling numbers — trends from the past three decades, during which cold weather resulted in smaller yields, make them inappropriate for comparison with current crops.
“From now on, we want to use satellites, artificial intelligence and other cutting-edge technology to improve our accuracy, establishing a new foundation for agriculture policies,” Koizumi said.
The Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications will make the final decision regarding whether to stop publishing the crop situation index.
Koizumi’s remarks came after he visited Fukushima Prefecture on Sunday to meet with officials from the Japan Agricultural Cooperatives (JA) and rice farmers, who said that the agriculture ministry’s rice crop situation index does not reflect reality.
“So you’re saying that you’re not producing, not harvesting as much as the agriculture ministry is saying? Well, we’ve been hearing the same thing in other regions,” Koizumi told the farmers, adding, “I will make sure that you feel like (the ministry’s data) is getting closer to what you’re sensing on-site.”
Since replacing his predecessor, who stepped down over a gaffe about rice four weeks ago, Koizumi has repeatedly said rice prices had surged since last summer due to a sharp drop in shipments made to JA and other distributors despite higher production.
Farmers produced 6.79 million tons of rice last year, up 180,000 tons from the previous year, according to the farm ministry. In 2025, they are projected to yield 7.19 million tons of rice, which would take the harvest 400,000 tons higher compared with last year's and make it the largest in five years, the ministry said — data which is now being refuted by farmers, themselves.
“I really want you to figure out the root cause of this rice shortage,” JA Fukushima Chuou-kai president Keiji Kano told Koizumi on Sunday.
Other factors, including a rising number of foreign visitors consuming more of the staple grain and speculative buyers entering the market, are also said to have contributed to price hikes. Some critics blamed farmers for not producing enough rice to meet demand.
The farm ministry released an additional 200,000 metric tons of stockpiled rice harvested in 2021 and 2020 through no-bid contracts last Wednesday. The retail price for the 2021 rice is expected to be around ¥1,800 ($12.43) per 5-kilogram bag while the 2020 rice is expected to cost ¥1,700.
“We need to prevent consumers from buying less rice, which we are (preventing) with farmers’ interests in mind. I ask for your understanding. I don’t think that (rice) will be ¥2,000 forever,” Koizumi said.
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