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THE country’s rice imports will decline in marketing year 2025-26 on the back of a projected rebound in local production, higher carryover stock, and the government’s rice initiatives, an international report said.

The United States Department of Agriculture-Foreign Agricultural Service in Manila (USDA-FAS Manila) projects rice shipments to dip by 1.9 percent to 5.2 million metric tons (MMT) in MY 2025-26 from 5.3 MMT in the previous MY.

“[This is] due to the forecast increase in local production, higher stock carryover from MY 2024-25, and the imposition of the MSRP on imported premium rice,” its latest report read.

However, the agency forecasts that Vietnam and Thailand will remain as the major suppliers of rice to the Philippine market in MY 2025-26.

“This is due to established trade relationships, competitive prices, and geographical proximity of Vietnam and Thailand to the Philippines.”

The USDA-FAS Manila also foresees a drop in supply of imported 5-percent broken grain variety in the country in MY 2025-26 owing to the ongoing implementation of the maximum suggested retail price (MSRP) on imported premium rice.

Meanwhile, the agency forecasts milled rice production to increase by 2.1 percent to 12.25 MMT in MY 2025-26 from the 12 MMT in the previous MY.

The USDA-FAS Manila attributed this projected rise in production to favorable weather conditions and an increase in government funding for the rice industry through the Rice Competitiveness Enhancement Fund (Rcef).

The amended Rice Tariffication Law (RTL) increased the Rcef to P30 billion until 2031.

This increased funding would be earmarked for strengthening access to rice farm machinery and equipment, and seed propagation.

It would also help in the training of farmers, expanding credit assistance, and improving pest and disease management.

The country’s palay output stood at 19.09 MMT in 2024, which fell short of the government’s 19.3 MMT target and was 4.85 percent lower than the record harvest of 20.06 MMT in 2023.

Despite this, the Department of Agriculture (DA) expects palay harvest to breach the 20 MMT-mark again this year at 20.46 MMT.

Source : businessmirror